Recession an Indian story
I was wondering whether this thread is south east Asia centric or not. May be my post may then be off-topic but in my opinion a bit of off-topics don’t kill a forum, rather enrich it.
Bad news travel fast. So it did when recession began to bite the US. Many of us in India first believed that it will remain in US and soon go away, India is too far. Our IT industry was the first to get hit as US had been the biggest importer. News of pink slips and freeze on hiring began to appear in the papers. From 2005 hiring was going on in frantic pace and salaries were heading north in a steep gradient. 2008 was ushered in with a gloom. Final year students started having nightmares as campus recruitment virtually came to a standstill. Which allied industries got hit? The airlines, hospitality, real estate. The advent of teleconferencing added to the woes of the airline and hotel industries. People undertook only very essential travels and opted to fly out early and return the same day. Hotels started offering rooms at almost 50% of the rack rates. Earlier it was impossible to get a room in a decent business hotel in Bangalore unless you booked a month in advance. Last year I travelled to Bangalore many times and stayed at my favourite hotel paying only US$80 a night plus two large scotch whiskey at the bar on the house.
Indians are by nature thrifty. The huge population of middle & higher middle class immediately put on hold purchases and shelved their holiday plans. Now came the time for consumer & white goods industries to start worrying. They suffered badly in the urban market and because of booming agriculture the rural markets were the only space these industries could look up to. Still the sales trickled in only around the harvest festivals and marriage seasons. The only industry that flourished was the telecom sector. In fact for telecom sector 2007 onwards is real boom time. 550m subscribers of mobile phones raked in great amount of revenue for the telcos. In general 2008 was spent with worries.
In 2009 it began to get clear that we have not been hit as bad as many other countries. The huge domestic market helped in sustaining our economy to a great extent. Our pharma industries did very good and exports touched new heights. Some of industry biggies like the Tatas quietly went on acquiring foreign companies. In order to survive the white & consumer industries had shredded all the fat and as a result the prices dropped. The bank interests also came down and attractive loan offers began to flood. Then came the good news that hiring has started, the second quarter registered a growth of 9% led by the automobile industries, 10% being projected for the 3rd. quarter. Real estate projects restarted with a bang. People began to spend. It was like drinking wine after a long period of abstinence. But have people started splurging? No. The first priority now is to go for essential things like housing, vehicle etc. In spite of low prices the flat screen LCD TV has to wait. What about the travel industries? Well after I had contacted a couple of them for our Thailand trip I am now hounded by telephone calls each trying to match others offers. So the answer is NO. Last year arrivals in Goa in the winter dropped to an all time low and this year is also not very promising.
Now what is the effect the receding recession is going leave on us?
It has taught us to identify wasteful expenditure and ways to prevent it.
It has forced us to look for enhancing efficiency and boosting productivity.
It has compelled our industries to be competitive.
It has made our politicians answerable for their performance. The last election is a proof of that.
It showed us that the endless formalities and guarantees that the banks required to sanction business loans which we hated actually saved us.
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